Don't be too alarmed by the odds we were quoted for keeping our permit. As Dr. Sands always says, everything is 50/50. It either happens or it doesn't.
Also, the Suwannee Canal into the swamp will be open for sure - it's not affected by water levels. We may be able to get Canal Run shelter or they may open the day use shelters along the canal for us for overnights.
What you should be alarmed by is the alligator count. According to the Famous Alligator Forecast, the canal is a quite a popular hangout.
Even the fall forecast of "Very High" is a slight downgrade from the summer when the canal red-lined at "Gators Galore."
That probably had something to do with the rare "cooperative feeding event" that occurred there on July 10, 2010.
Here is the unedited footage:
But please, if you only watch one version, watch it narrated:
Ok, it's true that low water level is a contributing factor to these feeding frenzies. But the chances of it happening to us are still just 50/50.
You would think since we're not on a shallow Middle Tennessee stream this fall we could take a year off from worrying about water levels. Turns out that is not the case at all. When we called back this week to pay for our permit, the rangers said that we can only pay by check because there is a "50/50 chance" we won't get to go at all. A check is easier to refund than a credit card payment.
The Okefenokee is 13" below normal and we are about to enter the dry seasons of October and November. All of the trails except Canal Run are currently closed. Apparently it takes a hurricance to really fill it back up, and there are only a couple of weeks left in hurricane season. So everyone needs to sacrifice a coon or oppposum to the rain gods and pray for about a Category 3 (don't want to overdo it).